Rotation #535: NBA Friday Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8 ET - Notice the line flip here and yes the status of Kawhi Leonard is up in the air but the Clippers won Game 1 without him and then lost Game 2 with him. But why are the Mavs now laying 4.5 just because they are at home? These teams were both about the same on the road as at home. That said, the Clips went off the board as a favorite in Game 2 because of Leonard playing but now they are catching 4.5 points on the road even though he might play again plus even though the Clips won Game 1 when he did not play. I like value and this one shapes up to be a highly competitive series with possible tight finishes just like the 3 point win the Mavs just had. If you look at the Mavs last 6 home games, they are 5-1 SU but with 1 of those wins in OT and 2 of the other wins by just a bucket. There is a lot of value here with 4.5 points. The Clippers have won a modest 5 of 9 games but 2 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. Also, one of the only two bigger losses was a season finale after Clips already clinched the division. The Clips were outscored by 18 points from 3 point land in the 3 points loss in Game 2 and, overall, it was unusually poor shooting that did in LA in that game. In Game 1 they shot very well and never trailed and led by as many as 29. After also having more shots from the field in Game 2 but shooting poorly, there is solid value here and we'll take it with the points. LA CLIPPERS (+)

Rotation #19: NHL Friday OVER 5.5 -118 in Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks @ 7:30 ET - The Canucks are expected to have DeSmith in goal again here. I know Demko did travel with the team but he is expected to miss more time and is merely traveling to be with the team and possibly help DeSmith with preparation, etc as much as he can. The fact is DeSmith struggled badly in Game 2 and now he goes on the road. Keep in mind, DeSmith had one good start at Edmonton but in his other 3 starts this month he has allowed 15 goals on 74 shots! Yes that is a save percentage under .800 and you know the Predators will be fired up here at home and will be pressuring him early and often. At the same time, the Canucks will have to now rely more on offensive prowess considering the goalie situation. Look for an entertaining affair here as I expect the Preds to pepper DeSmith with shots here but also expect the Canucks to battle back and you are looking at a game that could get to 3-3 at some point. This total at 5.5 goals is a great value should we see a 4-2 type game in this one. But both clubs enjoy offensive success in the zone here. The Canucks had scored at least 3 goals in 14 of 19 games prior to that 4-1 loss in Game 2 of this series. The Preds are rolling with confidence off a 4-1 road win and are back on home ice where they have averaged scoring 4 goals per game last dozen games! Per all of the above, I expect 7 or more here and we have the added cushion of 6 goals also producing a winning ticket here. I won't pass up this opportunity! OVER 5.5 -118 in Nashville

Rotation #962: MLB Friday Baltimore Orioles -1.5 -125 vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are coming back from a west coast trip but had a day game Wednesday so their rest situation is actually better than the A's who played last night in the Bronx and got an upset win over the Yankees despite being outhit. Speaking of being outhit, the Athletics have now scored 3 or less runs in 7 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games! In those 9 games, Oakland has averaged 2.3 runs scored per game. Note that the Orioles, on the other hand, have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 6 runs in their last 15 games! 6 to 2 sounds about right to me here and truly this should be a blowout win for the hosts. Baltimore's slugging percentage is 115 points higher than that of Oakland so far this season. Also, Corbin Burnes has a respectable 2.76 ERA this season and a 3-0 record while allowing only 22 hits and striking out 29 in his 29 innings. Conversely, Oakland's Ross Stripling has give up 37 hits in his 28.2 innings and he is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA. The O's are perfect in Burnes starts (5-0) while Stripling has taken the loss (0-5) in all of his 5 starts! Also, 5 of Oakland's last 6 losses by 2 or more runs. 14 of the Orioles 16 wins - including 7 of 8 at home - have been by 2+ runs! In other words, no hesitation in laying the run line here! BALTIMORE -1.5 -125

Rotation #206821: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Voluntari @ 1 ET - This one can be filed under the "someone knows something" category! Note that this one features Voluntari off a scoreless draw and Dinamo having seen each of their last 4 matches as a host total 2 or less goals. So, why is this total set at 2.5 goals? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. Over is the play here. This one features two teams desperate for a full 3 points in the table and I also can not foresee either club being held off the scoresheet here. Looking for at least a 2-1 final. Note that 3 straight meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 3 goals prior to a 1-0 Dinamo win in the most recent match-up. Dinamo is off a 2-1 loss and has allowed 8 goals in last 6 matches. Voluntari, though from the Bucuresti area, is still playing on enemy turf for this match and their away matches have been high-scoring. Voluntari has gone over the total in 5 straight matches away from home. Those 5 matches have averaged 4.4 goals apiece. That run reaches 6 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #30 NHL Saturday Toronto Maple Leafs -115 vs Boston Bruins @ 8 ET - This series has been back and forth so far and I look for that pattern to continue here. The Bruins won 4-2 in Game 3 after the Maple Leafs had bounced back from a series opening loss by notching a 3-2 win in Game 2. In the Game 3 loss on home ice, the Maple Leafs played the Bruins even in 5 on 5 but they lost the special teams battle. Toronto was 0 for 5 on the power play while Boston only had 3 opportunities but cashed 2 of them! That ended up being the difference in the 4-2 Bruins win. Note that in the regular season there was not a big disparity between these teams special teams. Leafs had the slightly better power play while the Bruins do have an edge on the penalty kill. That said, don't expect a repeat of Game 3 when it comes to special teams. The Leafs might finally have Nylander back on the ice for this critical Game 4. He appears to be nearing his return and had 40 goals and 58 assists in a huge regular season. The Bruins have been alternating goalies but will that work out here? That would mean Ullmark again in Game 4 but, though he played decently, he was the loser in Game 2 and Swayman has played even better. The Bruins goalie rotation could play havoc with the team eventually and this will be interesting to watch here in Game 4. Either way, I like the Leafs to respond big on home ice and even this series up. The Maple Leafs did outshoot the Bruins by a combined 70 to 54 in the first two games of this series. They respond big here. TORONTO -115

Rotation #547: NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets Money Line -155 @ LA Lakers @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I play a lot of money line dogs. This is a rare case where I am playing a money line favorite in NBA. I expect this series ends tonight. The Nuggets are the defending NBA champs and they certainly know plenty about the importance of rest. With the Wolves on the edge of sweeping the Suns and other series seeing the Mavs and Thunder look quite dominant against their respective foes, Denver knows a sweep would certainly help them prepare even better for the tough road ahead. The concerning thing for the Lakers is they had a 10 point lead after the first quarter in Game 3 and yet lost by 17 points the rest of the way in the eventual 7 point loss. The Nuggets dominated on the glass in that game too. Both teams shot poorly and yet Denver still was the team to grind out the win. Also, the Lakers have been missing some depth players that still remain out. Then when you look at the star players like Davis and James, note that Davis is listed as questionable with a wrist issue and that is different from the back issue he has been playing through. As for LeBron, he is consistently on the injury report with his ankle issue but is he truly wearing down now? He was 1 of 6 from 3-point land on his home floor and he only had 6 rebounds in 42 minutes. Some extra time off between Games 3 and 4 - for example, like Embiid and Sixers have against Knicks - would certainly help James and Davis but that is not the case here. We could lay the 3.5 points here but I am more comfortable with the money line given there has already been a tight 2-point win in this series also. DENVER -155

#905 MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies +103 @ San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - This one is all about the line value as certainly I respect Cease and he is off to a great start this season but so too is Suarez. That said, what about the lineups and current trending here? The Phillies rolled to a 9-3 win yesterday and their sluggers were crushing the ball. This Philly team has had many bigger performances at the plate of late and if some of their guys that had been a bit quiet early this season are starting to get it going...look out! The Phillies hit 5 home runs yesterday and have now won 9 of 11 games and have scored an average of 7 runs in their last 8 wins! As for the Padres, even playing at Colorado did not help their slumbering bats too much. In a 4-game series they had one 10-9 loss. However, in their other 8 games that are part of their current 3-6 slide, they have scored an average of only 3 runs per game! In 7 of their last 10 home games the Padres have scored 3 or less runs! Even against Cease, don't be surprised if the Phillies prove to be the much stronger team at the plate again today. Note that the Phillies road batting average is more than 20 points higher than the Padres home batting average this season. Suarez has not allowed any runs in the 22 innings spanning his last 3 starts! PHILADELPHIA +103

#923 MLB Saturday Houston Astros -1.5 -155 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET in Mexico City, MX - Note the total of 17 runs set for this game. This one is played in high altitude and last season's 2-game series here for MLB featured a ton of runs when the Padres faced the Giants. In this match-up I give a big edge to the Astros and feel they are the ones driving the high total posted on this game. I don't trust the Rockies to keep up. First off, Blanco has been fantastic compared to Quantrill this season. Also, Colorado's lineup does not have experience against Blanco while the Astros lineup does have experience against Quantrill. The key here in a hitter-friendly park is a lot of strikeouts and a lack of strong contact resulting in big hits. Look at the key numbers here and you will see that, both pitchers have logged 27 innings but Quantrill has allowed 28 hits with 4 homers and only 15 strikeouts while Blanco has 22 strikeouts and only 11 hits with just 1 homer! These teams have identical 7-19 records but the Astros are on a 5-game losing streak while Rockies have been a little better of late. So why is Houston such a massive favorite here? Exactly! The odds makers are looking at the same thing sharp bettors are looking at here! Per all of the above, lay it with confidence here! HOUSTON -1.5 -155

Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United vs Sheffield United @ 10 AM ET - Big total here but fully justified! Newcastle is angry off a shutout loss on the road. Now they are back home and favored by 2 goals on the goal line here. They will take advantage of facing a Sheffield United club that, amazingly, has allowed 92 goals in 34 matches this season! Newcastle is known for scoring well at home and they have tallied 43 in their 17 matches as a host this season. They could get this total all by themselves as scoring 4 would not surprise me. Newcastle won the reverse fixture 8-0 this season! Surely Sheffield would like revenge for that bloodbath at home but they are catching Newcastle as the wrong time to exact revenge. Sheffield should get on the scoresheet here as they have been finding the back of the net with regularity. The problem is they can stop no one and that is why I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here! Sheffield has played 16 matches since the calendar turned the page to 2024 and 14 of the 16 totaled at least 4 goals! Sheffield has scored 11 goals in last 7 matches and they will push hard here as they have nothing to lose. However, this Newcastle club is getting a little healthier again and they have the striking ability to make Sheffield pay early and often in this one on the counterattack. No club in the league has scored more than Newcastle's 43 in home matches. No club in the league is anywhere close to conceding 92 goals on the campaign like Sheffield. Look for another wild one here as the hosts will not let up here coming off a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace. They are fired up to respond on their home pitch. OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United